09/01/03 TCU Horned Frogs at Tulane Green Wave (-5/52.5)
8:00 PM EST
Forecast: In the dome!
Better late than never!
Another Labor Day battle between Conference USA foes TCU and Tulane. I will give you my analysis of this game and my pick and I can’t guarantee it’s going to win but I can guarantee that I put time and effort into this analysis. Here we go:
COACHES
TCU- Gary Patterson: In his 3rd year at TCU Patterson has enjoyed success posting a 16-9 record to date. He has been a reason for the Horned Frogs success the last 5 years (5 bowls) and was 2002 CUSA coach of the year, leading the Frogs to a 10-2 record and a Liberty Bowl victory over Colorado St. Patterson is a defensive mastermind and his Frogs had the #1 defense and #1 rushing defense in the NATION in 2002.
Tulane – Chris Scelfo: Scelfo is in his 5th season at Tulane and has a record of 21-27 in that time. He is the only coach ever to win 2 bowl games at Tulane and upset Hawaii a year ago in the Hawaii bowl (basically beat Hawaii on the road…no small task). Scelfo is 8th all-time in wins at Tulane.
ADVANTAGE: TCU – Patterson’s teams play better defense and he has kept TCU a winner after coach Dennis Franchione left in 2000. TCU is 41-19 overall since Patterson became a member of their coaching staff…and he has a lot to do with it.
QUARTERBACK
TCU – Tye Gunn (So.): Gunn is back after a major knee injury took him out last year against So. Miss. Gunn was awesome in 4 games for the Frogs with wins over Louisville and So. Miss and his team averaged 40.5 ppg with him at QB! TCU was 4-0 with him in and he completed 57 of 91 passes for a 62.6 completion percentage and 6 TD’s against only 2 INT’s.
Tulane – J.P. Losman (Sr.): Tulane counters with a great QB of their own in Losman. Losman is a pre-season Davey O’Brien (Top QB) candidate and owns the lowest INT percentage in Tulane and CUSA history with only 13 INT’s in 565 pass attempts. Monster junior year (230/401 2,468 yds and 25 TD’s 19 passing, 6 rushing) included a 25 for 35 and 5 TD performance against Navy.
ADVANTAGE: Tulane because Gunn doesn’t have the experience and it’ll be interesting to see how he plays on the turf with that knee.
RUNNING BACKS
TCU – The Frogs are loaded at running back with 4 running backs who last year rushed for 100 yds or more in a game. It starts with So. Lonta Hobbs. In 8 games last year Hobbs had 1,029 yards and broke all the TCU freshman rushing records. Hobbs was CUSA freshman of the year and culminated the 2002 campaign with a 287 yd performance on 33 carries vs. Memphis. If Hobbs falters senior TB Ricky Madison will be there to take up the slack. Madison as a junior rushed for 719 yards and averaged 4.6 ypc.
Tulane – All-everything Sr. Mewelde Moore is the Tulane running game. Pre-season CUSA offensive player of the year, pre-season CUSA All-American, Doak Walker Award candidate for the 3rd straight year, there isn’t much to say that hasn’t already been said about this kid. 3,449 rushing yards in three years and 5,182 all-purpose yards is more than any other player in the NCAA period. Moore owns 23 Tulane rushing and all-purpose school records and looks to eclipse CUSA records this season. He also leads the school in receiving and is the first player in school history to have 2,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards.
ADVANTAGE: Push as TCU was #1 in rushing offense in CUSA last year and Tulane has Moore.
WIDE RECEIVERS
TCU - The Frogs are really a question mark in the wideout department as four of their top receivers all graduated. Jr. standout Reggie Harrell has all the tools to be a standout here but he is unproven with only 13 catches a year ago. His counterpart 5th year senior Bruce Galbert has only 2 catches in his career (both vs Tulane).
Tulane – We’ve talked about Moore who is a double threat with over 1000 yards receiving a year ago. The actual wideouts have potential with Jr. Roydell Williams, a pre-season CUSA All-American selection, back after a medical redshirt for a fractured ankle in 2002. Williams is one of Losman’s favorites and had 10 catches for 87 yds in the game he got hurt in vs ECU. He was 9th in the nation in 2001 in TD catches with 11.
ADVANTAGE: Tulane with Williams return should be able to spread it out more so the Frogs can’t just key on Moore every play.
OFFENSIVE LINE
TCU – Some standouts here like Jr. LT Anthony Alabi (6-6 325) a pre-season All-CUSA pick by the coaches and Sr. LG John Glud (6-7 333) who has 24 starts in his career and is the biggest lineman on this squad. Average size of line 6-4 310.
Tulane – No real standouts here other than So. LT Chris McGee (6-4 285) who led the line in pancakes a year ago with 31. Average size of line (6-3 288)
ADVANTAGE: TCU’s O line is much bigger but the key again is against the D lines.
DEFENSIVE LINE
TCU – Obviously a team with the #1 defense and the #1 rushing defense will be loaded with studs up front. All 4 are seniors with 2 of them (LE Bo Schobel and NT Chad Pugh) pre-season All-CUSA picks. Pugh is one of the top NT’s in the country and can dominate a game up front by himself. This line allowed a paltry 64.8 ypg in 2002 and kept the Wave to 115 yds total offense a year ago. Average size of TCU D line 6-3 275.
Tulane – A couple of seniors Terrence Tarver and Daniel Nevil (a converted LB) will start up front along with Jr. Bamm Mateen and So. Michael Roberts. None of these guys were regulars (Mateen did start 7 games and Roberts did have 27 tackles in 13 games) and gone are the two top sack leaders. Average size of line 6-1 267.
ADVANTAGE: TCU by a mile. By 2 miles. TCU O line has 3 inches and 43 pounds on average on the Tulane D here. That can mean great things for the Frogs running game.
LINEBACKERS
TCU – A couple of decent ones in Sr. Josh Goolsby and Jr. Martin Patterson. Goolsby is a run specialist and is very strong but he can be a liability in the passing game. Patterson gets to play strong side backer and has to replace standout LaMarcus McDonald but he can hit.
Tulane – The Green Wave actually have some talent here and it starts with LB Anthony Cannon. Accolades include The Sporting News 2nd team freshman All-American and preseason All-CUSA selection as well as being a preseason Butkus Award candidate. Cannon was also 2nd in the nation in tackles among freshman including a 14 tackle performance against So. Miss.
ADVANTAGE: Push with slight edge to TCU but Cannon is a standout.
SECONDARY
TCU – The pass defense is ok but losing standout CB Jason Goss hurts. 4 upperclassmen lead a hard hitting secondary with junior Marvin Godboldt looking to be the leader. Godboldt has 20 starts in his career and will be looked at to lead the pass defense. Sr. CB Tyrone Sanders is a speed burner and runs the opening leg in TCU’s 4x1 track relay.
Tulane – Very young secondary looks to build on the youth. Cornerbacks are both sophomores with Sean Lucas being the best of the bunch (3 returns for scores).
ADVANTAGE: TCU has an edge because Tulane can’t get much worse than last year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
TCU – Senior Nick Brown is 5th on TCU’s all-time scoring list and is CUSA’s pre-season special teams player of the year. Jr. P John Braziel is also back. Sophomore Zach Moore is expected to handle punt and kick return duties.
Tulane – A couple of freshman will replace former Groza award winner Seth Marler for kicking and punting duties. PK Barrett Pepper has a strong leg but is still a freshman. KOR Tristan Smith has some speed but the special teams is nothing to write home about.
ADVANTAGE: TCU by a longshot. Brown indoors will be a major plus for the Frogs.
INTANGIBLES
TCU – Frogs 1-3 L4 openers, 23-24-4 opening on the road all-time. 7-3 vs Tulane. They have not won yet opening the season on national TV (0-2). Frogs are 7-1 ATS as a road fav of less than 7 pts. Frogs are also 2-5 ATS L7 on turf.
Tulane – Won last year’s opener over Southern in the Superdome. Have won 5 of the last 6 Superdome openers. Wave are 9-19 ATS as a home dog (ouch).
ADVANTAGE: Push
TCU wins in Coaches, O Line, D Line, Secondary and Special Teams
Tulane wins in QB and WR
Even in RB, LB and Intangibles
My prediction: Tulane has some weapons on the offensive side of the ball and this one should be an exciting game to watch. They may actually have some success throwing the ball with the new players in the TCU secondary getting accustomed to their roles. The problem is going to be up front for the Green Wave as TCU’s front lines should have no problems pushing the smaller Green Wave linemen around. Tulane did play TCU close to the vest and I am expecting more of the same this time around. I’m going to make a small play on the OVER 52.5 and see how it plays out.
OVER 52.5
8:00 PM EST
Forecast: In the dome!
Better late than never!
Another Labor Day battle between Conference USA foes TCU and Tulane. I will give you my analysis of this game and my pick and I can’t guarantee it’s going to win but I can guarantee that I put time and effort into this analysis. Here we go:
COACHES
TCU- Gary Patterson: In his 3rd year at TCU Patterson has enjoyed success posting a 16-9 record to date. He has been a reason for the Horned Frogs success the last 5 years (5 bowls) and was 2002 CUSA coach of the year, leading the Frogs to a 10-2 record and a Liberty Bowl victory over Colorado St. Patterson is a defensive mastermind and his Frogs had the #1 defense and #1 rushing defense in the NATION in 2002.
Tulane – Chris Scelfo: Scelfo is in his 5th season at Tulane and has a record of 21-27 in that time. He is the only coach ever to win 2 bowl games at Tulane and upset Hawaii a year ago in the Hawaii bowl (basically beat Hawaii on the road…no small task). Scelfo is 8th all-time in wins at Tulane.
ADVANTAGE: TCU – Patterson’s teams play better defense and he has kept TCU a winner after coach Dennis Franchione left in 2000. TCU is 41-19 overall since Patterson became a member of their coaching staff…and he has a lot to do with it.
QUARTERBACK
TCU – Tye Gunn (So.): Gunn is back after a major knee injury took him out last year against So. Miss. Gunn was awesome in 4 games for the Frogs with wins over Louisville and So. Miss and his team averaged 40.5 ppg with him at QB! TCU was 4-0 with him in and he completed 57 of 91 passes for a 62.6 completion percentage and 6 TD’s against only 2 INT’s.
Tulane – J.P. Losman (Sr.): Tulane counters with a great QB of their own in Losman. Losman is a pre-season Davey O’Brien (Top QB) candidate and owns the lowest INT percentage in Tulane and CUSA history with only 13 INT’s in 565 pass attempts. Monster junior year (230/401 2,468 yds and 25 TD’s 19 passing, 6 rushing) included a 25 for 35 and 5 TD performance against Navy.
ADVANTAGE: Tulane because Gunn doesn’t have the experience and it’ll be interesting to see how he plays on the turf with that knee.
RUNNING BACKS
TCU – The Frogs are loaded at running back with 4 running backs who last year rushed for 100 yds or more in a game. It starts with So. Lonta Hobbs. In 8 games last year Hobbs had 1,029 yards and broke all the TCU freshman rushing records. Hobbs was CUSA freshman of the year and culminated the 2002 campaign with a 287 yd performance on 33 carries vs. Memphis. If Hobbs falters senior TB Ricky Madison will be there to take up the slack. Madison as a junior rushed for 719 yards and averaged 4.6 ypc.
Tulane – All-everything Sr. Mewelde Moore is the Tulane running game. Pre-season CUSA offensive player of the year, pre-season CUSA All-American, Doak Walker Award candidate for the 3rd straight year, there isn’t much to say that hasn’t already been said about this kid. 3,449 rushing yards in three years and 5,182 all-purpose yards is more than any other player in the NCAA period. Moore owns 23 Tulane rushing and all-purpose school records and looks to eclipse CUSA records this season. He also leads the school in receiving and is the first player in school history to have 2,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards.
ADVANTAGE: Push as TCU was #1 in rushing offense in CUSA last year and Tulane has Moore.
WIDE RECEIVERS
TCU - The Frogs are really a question mark in the wideout department as four of their top receivers all graduated. Jr. standout Reggie Harrell has all the tools to be a standout here but he is unproven with only 13 catches a year ago. His counterpart 5th year senior Bruce Galbert has only 2 catches in his career (both vs Tulane).
Tulane – We’ve talked about Moore who is a double threat with over 1000 yards receiving a year ago. The actual wideouts have potential with Jr. Roydell Williams, a pre-season CUSA All-American selection, back after a medical redshirt for a fractured ankle in 2002. Williams is one of Losman’s favorites and had 10 catches for 87 yds in the game he got hurt in vs ECU. He was 9th in the nation in 2001 in TD catches with 11.
ADVANTAGE: Tulane with Williams return should be able to spread it out more so the Frogs can’t just key on Moore every play.
OFFENSIVE LINE
TCU – Some standouts here like Jr. LT Anthony Alabi (6-6 325) a pre-season All-CUSA pick by the coaches and Sr. LG John Glud (6-7 333) who has 24 starts in his career and is the biggest lineman on this squad. Average size of line 6-4 310.
Tulane – No real standouts here other than So. LT Chris McGee (6-4 285) who led the line in pancakes a year ago with 31. Average size of line (6-3 288)
ADVANTAGE: TCU’s O line is much bigger but the key again is against the D lines.
DEFENSIVE LINE
TCU – Obviously a team with the #1 defense and the #1 rushing defense will be loaded with studs up front. All 4 are seniors with 2 of them (LE Bo Schobel and NT Chad Pugh) pre-season All-CUSA picks. Pugh is one of the top NT’s in the country and can dominate a game up front by himself. This line allowed a paltry 64.8 ypg in 2002 and kept the Wave to 115 yds total offense a year ago. Average size of TCU D line 6-3 275.
Tulane – A couple of seniors Terrence Tarver and Daniel Nevil (a converted LB) will start up front along with Jr. Bamm Mateen and So. Michael Roberts. None of these guys were regulars (Mateen did start 7 games and Roberts did have 27 tackles in 13 games) and gone are the two top sack leaders. Average size of line 6-1 267.
ADVANTAGE: TCU by a mile. By 2 miles. TCU O line has 3 inches and 43 pounds on average on the Tulane D here. That can mean great things for the Frogs running game.
LINEBACKERS
TCU – A couple of decent ones in Sr. Josh Goolsby and Jr. Martin Patterson. Goolsby is a run specialist and is very strong but he can be a liability in the passing game. Patterson gets to play strong side backer and has to replace standout LaMarcus McDonald but he can hit.
Tulane – The Green Wave actually have some talent here and it starts with LB Anthony Cannon. Accolades include The Sporting News 2nd team freshman All-American and preseason All-CUSA selection as well as being a preseason Butkus Award candidate. Cannon was also 2nd in the nation in tackles among freshman including a 14 tackle performance against So. Miss.
ADVANTAGE: Push with slight edge to TCU but Cannon is a standout.
SECONDARY
TCU – The pass defense is ok but losing standout CB Jason Goss hurts. 4 upperclassmen lead a hard hitting secondary with junior Marvin Godboldt looking to be the leader. Godboldt has 20 starts in his career and will be looked at to lead the pass defense. Sr. CB Tyrone Sanders is a speed burner and runs the opening leg in TCU’s 4x1 track relay.
Tulane – Very young secondary looks to build on the youth. Cornerbacks are both sophomores with Sean Lucas being the best of the bunch (3 returns for scores).
ADVANTAGE: TCU has an edge because Tulane can’t get much worse than last year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
TCU – Senior Nick Brown is 5th on TCU’s all-time scoring list and is CUSA’s pre-season special teams player of the year. Jr. P John Braziel is also back. Sophomore Zach Moore is expected to handle punt and kick return duties.
Tulane – A couple of freshman will replace former Groza award winner Seth Marler for kicking and punting duties. PK Barrett Pepper has a strong leg but is still a freshman. KOR Tristan Smith has some speed but the special teams is nothing to write home about.
ADVANTAGE: TCU by a longshot. Brown indoors will be a major plus for the Frogs.
INTANGIBLES
TCU – Frogs 1-3 L4 openers, 23-24-4 opening on the road all-time. 7-3 vs Tulane. They have not won yet opening the season on national TV (0-2). Frogs are 7-1 ATS as a road fav of less than 7 pts. Frogs are also 2-5 ATS L7 on turf.
Tulane – Won last year’s opener over Southern in the Superdome. Have won 5 of the last 6 Superdome openers. Wave are 9-19 ATS as a home dog (ouch).
ADVANTAGE: Push
TCU wins in Coaches, O Line, D Line, Secondary and Special Teams
Tulane wins in QB and WR
Even in RB, LB and Intangibles
My prediction: Tulane has some weapons on the offensive side of the ball and this one should be an exciting game to watch. They may actually have some success throwing the ball with the new players in the TCU secondary getting accustomed to their roles. The problem is going to be up front for the Green Wave as TCU’s front lines should have no problems pushing the smaller Green Wave linemen around. Tulane did play TCU close to the vest and I am expecting more of the same this time around. I’m going to make a small play on the OVER 52.5 and see how it plays out.
OVER 52.5
